NVIDIA and AMD’s Market Share Will Fall
NVIDIA and AMD’s share in the Chinese market may fall to 2026. NVIDIA’s new strategies against the dominance of domestic production are in our news.
According to a new report published by market research company TrendForce, US export restrictions and China’s heavy investment in domestic technology production are putting significant pressure on NVIDIA and AMD’s market share in China. By 2026, the market share of these two tech giants in China is expected to fall to around 10%, while domestic chip manufacturers are projected to dominate 90% of the market. China’s strategy of technological independence is significantly undermining the dominance of US-based companies like NVIDIA and AMD in the region, particularly through increased production capacity by local players such as Huawei and SMIC.
- NVIDIA and AMD’s share of the Chinese market is projected to fall to 10% by 2026.
- Domestic chip manufacturers are expected to dominate the sector, increasing their market share to 90%.
- NVIDIA is developing new GPU models specifically for the Chinese market to comply with US sanctions.
- Shipments of high-performance AI chips in China are projected to increase by 83% year-on-year.
China’s rapid rise in domestic chip production is fundamentally changing the stability of the global semiconductor market.
Chinese Manufacturers Gaining Market Strength
According to TrendForce data, Chinese tech giants like Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Huawei are rapidly developing local manufacturing capacity thanks to their own custom-built integrated circuits (ASICs). Manufacturers like SMIC and Shanghai Hua Hong are expected to increase their shipments at a compound annual growth rate of 50% over the next few years. Instead of imposing a complete ban on NVIDIA and AMD products, the US government continues to operate rigorous approval processes to prevent their use for military purposes.
NVIDIA Continues to Compete with New Solutions
NVIDIA is taking strategic steps to adapt to these changing market conditions. The company is preparing to launch a special variant of its Blackwell RTX Pro 5000 series in the Chinese market, in compliance with the criteria set by US sanctions. This new GPU model aims to maintain performance and compatibility stability by being powered by GDDR7 memory technology. Previous reports indicated that NVIDIA was also trying to appeal to Chinese customers with restricted models like the RTX 6000D.
Technology giants are making intense efforts to protect their market share in the face of the rise of local production.
The Future of the Market is Entering a Transformation Process
By 2026, local solutions are expected to establish absolute dominance in the high-performance AI chip market. NVIDIA’s RTX Pro 5000 variant, announced in December 2025 and notable for its high memory capacity, is considered a critical step aimed at strengthening the company’s hand in this competitive environment. However, it remains to be seen to what extent local incentives and increased production capacity will enable US-based companies to sustain their operations in the region.
How do you think China’s rapid rise in domestic chip production will affect the global AI technology race? You can share your thoughts with us in the comments section.
